Right wing gains momentum in Europe

Populism that once surged in the United States and Britain appears to be losing steam, while a wave of right-leaning movements is gathering momentum across continental Europe.

Anglo-Saxon Populism Shows Signs of Decline

In the United States, Democrats have entered the 2024 campaign with a clear lead in both chambers of Congress, narrowing the path for former President Donald Trump to secure a second term. Recent polls place the incumbent at 31% approval, a drop that makes a victory unlikely.

Republicans trail by roughly 9 percentage points in the congressional ballot.

Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom sees the once-influential Nigel Farage slipping further from the political spotlight. His party’s approval ratings have fallen sharply after controversies surrounding the handling of gifts, and the current debate centers on restoring a stable two-party system.

Continental Europe Enters a Super-Cycle of Elections

Europe is set for an intense electoral year that begins with Spain’s parliamentary vote on 29 November and culminates with France’s presidential election in April. The sequence also includes national polls in Finland, Poland and Slovenia, creating a continuous campaign rhythm.

In Spain, after eight years of socialist rule, the centre-right People’s Party and its hard-right ally Vox are gaining traction. Survey data show a clear tilt toward a coalition that could shift the country’s policy direction on immigration and fiscal matters.

France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen has climbed back into the lead in the first round, while the traditional centre has struggled to present a charismatic challenger. The left has coalesced around Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose platform is viewed by some as more divisive than Le Pen’s.

Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni heads a coalition that has maintained a solid governing record, positioning her as a frontrunner for a third consecutive term. Her government blends conservative social policies with a pro-business agenda.

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the most popular protest party, capturing 28% of voter intent in the latest survey. The party’s anti-immigration stance resonates amid ongoing debates over the nation’s energy transition and social spending.

While the electoral calendar unfolds, several Eastern European leaders continue to champion strict migration policies. Both Poland’s prime minister and Hungary’s head of government have cited recent unrest as evidence that hard-line approaches protect national security.

The surge in right-leaning sentiment reflects broader economic pressures, including rising living costs and lingering refugee challenges that have eroded confidence in established parties.

The continent’s higher share of Muslim-origin residents and its proximity to migration routes amplify cultural concerns, giving populist parties a potent rallying point that extends beyond pure economic grievances.

In Germany, the AfD’s 28% polling figure positions it as a key player in upcoming state elections, where a coalition shift could alter the balance of power in several Länder.

Election Trends Across the Continent

German state contests scheduled for spring could reshape the federal leadership, potentially ending the tenure of the current chancellor if opposition parties gain control.

In France, the leading right-wing campaign proposes a series of measures aimed at reducing the nation’s financial obligations to the European Union.

Polish and Hungarian leaders have repeatedly asserted that recent disturbances validate their strict immigration policies, positioning themselves as protectors of national security.

Implications for the European Union

Potential victory for the French right-wing contender would represent a seismic shift for Europe, surpassing the impact of the United Kingdom’s 2016 departure.

A victory for Marine Le Pen would be a significant blow to Europe, given France’s role in founding and governing the European project. The outcome of the elections will have a profound impact on the future of the European Union.